After a whopping $400 yesterday from $2,350 to below $2000 for the first time in months, bitcoin is showing signs of recovery even as the community is on the edge owing to the fast approaching fork deadline.
It seems most likely that the fork would happen, splitting the bitcoin chain into two – bigger blocks and smaller blocks.
Segwit2x, an attempt to prevent such split by promising both small blocker’s segwit and bigger blocker’s on-chain capacity increase, has seemingly been slightly delayed, while also being rejected by both sides. Small blockers are opposing on-chain increase that is to occur three months after segwit activates. Big blockers on the other hand are of the opinion that segwit2x will never go ahead with the on-chain increase, seeing it as only a way to activate segwit.
This opposition from both the fronts has given rise to two new clients, UASF and BitcoinABC. UASF will activate segwit regardless of miners support, but if segwit2x is addopted by miners before August the 1st, as some 90% have said they will, then UASF will be made irrelevant.
On the other hand, BitcoinABC, which largely uses the same method of increasing on-chain capacity as Bitcoin Unlimited, will hardfork on August the 1st to increase on-chain capacity without requiring any majority miner support.
As such, bitcoin will split into two. A small blocks bitcoin and a big blocks bitcoin, which will probably be called Bitcoin Core (BCC) and Bitcoin Unlimited (BTU).
Everyone is advised to not transact on August the 1st. But on the code and technical aspects, things should go smoothly. All those that have bitcoins on August the 1st will be given the same amount on the BCC and BTU chain.
At least one exchange will most probably list both, with BCC likely listed as just BTC. Then, a period of very high volatility is to be expected price wise as the market decides the value of the two coins.
Whichever coin gains 70% or more of the price value will likely be given the bitcoin brand and the BTC ticker, with the minority coin then probably to be called Bitcoin Core with a BCC ticker or Bitcoin Unlimited with a BTU ticker depending on which of the two will be the minority coin.
Something that currently is very difficult to predict. So we will have to wait for the monumental events of what will probably be a very historic day in this space.